In talking about the Indians' rotation going into the '14 season it is important to establish a fresh perspective in how rotations are put together and get out of the old axiom of MLB that you're suspect until you have proven yourself to be established. This is a VERY flawed way at looking at pitching and teams in general. Another thing we need to look at in looking at the Indians' '14 rotation is to have a flashback to what the Indians' rotation resembled this time last year and how we got to this point. In looking at these things we will see that the Indians are not in nearly as bad a shape as the media and some fans make it out to be, IMO.
We hear it every year when analyzing teams going into a season. No matter how good a prospect is he is a suspect pitcher until he breaks out. Well, I understand the glass half full empty approach but every year the glass half full way of thinking comes up to help team(s) not only contend but to help them win it all. When see starters like Corbin, Ryu for starters come in as rookies and excel it makes not signing that big name free agent starter well worth it because you're getting the same production for a fraction of the cost. Some teams have an unshakeable faith in their ability to identify and go with talented starters despite what others might think and I'm thinking the Indians are starting to become one of those teams.
It's important to remember where the Indians rotation was last year at this time. We had Justin Masterson who was coming off an injury that hurt his production in the '12 season, Ubaldo had been a disaster since being acquired in '11, Brett Myers who had started in a couple years, Scott Kazmir who was out of MLB for over a year and McAllister who looked pretty solid. I bring this up because over the course of the long MLB Season rotations and bullpens evolve. Some may perform better and some may perform worse but the key is having the depth and TALENT to sustain thru the bad times. I contend that some teams have alot of talent in the rotation but one under performance and/.or injury and the season is finished. These teams lack the adequate depth.
I bring these points up because they pertain to that of the '14 Indians rotation. If we went by the Archaic MLB axiom that you're suspect until proven to be legit then no way the Indians would've contended for a playoff spot last year. Let us recall that the Indians got absolutely nothing out of Brett Myers who was injured in Spring Training and was terrible in his tenure in the regular season, Ubaldo was terrible early on in the season and improved a little toward the All Star Break(Ubaldo was so bad early that some media members were saying he should be cut in April), Kazmir was up and down during the first couple of months of the season. The two stabilizing forces at that time during the season was Justin Masterson and Zach McAllister who if you recall had twelve straight games with quality start. BTW, no telling what McAllister would've done if he hadn't gotten injured.
In the place of the injured Myers the called up a guy by the name of Corey Kluber who promptly went on 11-5 with a 3.85 ERA before having a finger injury. If Kluber hadn't had the injury then it's very realistic what we would've have a 15-7 guy in the rotation. With the injury to McAllister and Kluber with finger injuries the Indians desperately needed another starter to come in and stabilize the rotation. They called up a young starter by the name of Danny Salazar. Salazar didn't win a bunch of games but went on to give the Indians solid innings and would've gone even more innings if he wasn't on a pitch count. During this time Ubaldo started to go on an amazing tear and Kazmir to further stabilize the rotation in going with Masterson.
If we're keeping Score here the Indians got nothing out of Myers, Ubaldo and Kazmir were up and down during the first half of the year and both Corey Kluber and Zach McAllister missed time with finger injuries. The Indians in their places called up two rookies in Corey Kluber and Danny Salazar AND STILL WON 92 GAMES!! Not to mention the Indians suffered thru the struggles of both Chris Perez and Vinnie Pestano, having no reliable lefty until acquiring Rzepczynski. For the sake of this piece will keep it to the rotation.
Fast Forward to the '14 Indians projected rotation. Masterson, Kluber, Salazar, McAllister and Carrasco. If the first four guys are healthy then they will get people out and be very solid. Which brings me to Carrasco and to the point where the antiquated way of thinking is leading some to feel the Indians are short on starting pitching.
Looking at the prospects for the #5 spot in the rotation I will limit it to Carrasco, Bauer and Tomlin. In looking at Carrasco, I see a guy that is ready to break out onto the scene. Yes, I know he's out of options and was bad in the rotation last year. What some seem to forget that Carrasco for whatever reason lost confidence in his stuff. In the offseason the Indians gave Carrasco the "Ubaldo treatment". They worked on his approach, changed his arm slot and told him that he was the front runner for the rotation and that if he were to make the rotation he wouldn't be taken out after bad starts. Yes, the Indians did Ubaldo the exact same way and look what happened.
Rewind to '11 season when Carrasco broke camp with the Indians. After an inconsistent first six starts Carrasco hit his stride in June. If you recall Masterson had his breakout season that year but it was Carrasco that was being considered the ace of staff NOT Justin Masteerson before his unfortunate injury. Carrasco missed all of '12 season to come to '13 season. Most will tell you that command is the one thing that comes later after elbow surgery but for whatever reason Carrasco hasn't been afforded this convenience according to the fans and media. He looked good in the bullpen and in AAA but wasn't able to get consistent in the rotation. I say all this to say this: With being two years away from surgery, getting the "Ubaldo treatment", having terrific stuff and being assured that he won't be taken out of rotation due to poor starts. During the course of the long MLB I'm willing to bank on Carrasco having a big year for the Indians. I would even say that by time the year ends he'll be 1-2 in the rotation .
Yes the Indians have guys like Bauer whom they say is looking really good with new Delivery(he too got the "Ubaldo Treatment") because we all know about his talent and stuff and Tomlin who looked as though he would be a solid 12-15 win guy before his injury. So, if you want to look at the Indians' rotation as half empty with the old MLB axiom that you are suspect until proven otherwise, that's your prerogative. However, you want to look a little deeper and see the raw talent, potential of a rotation realizing that Rotations evolve as I tried to demonstrate to you then, IMHO that's the more up to date/modern way of looking at the Indians because you can see that teams around MLB such as PIT, STL, TB, OAK and others go with talent instead of trying to pacify media/fans with all proven guys in the rotation and it shows in their success.
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