Monday, October 28, 2013

Why the Cavaliers are 53 win team

As the Cavaliers embark on another NBA season I am often looked at and called names because of the high expectations I have for this Cavs team.  I consider this team a potentially very good team that can beat anyone in a series when totally healthy.  In this blog I will explain my reasoning and would like to challenge all the readers in what they agree or disagree with.


HEALTH:  IMO, this is the biggest question mark of the team because once the Cavs get past this issue they are a very dangerous team.  I for one think that the Kyrie Irvin and Anderson Verajao injuries last year were flukes and don't go as far as calling folks injury prone like some others.  I think that sometimes players have the misfortune of being at the wrong place at the wrong time and get injured.


In saying that those two players alone being relatively healthy will help this team immensely.  Andy was averaging a double double each and every night with his hustle and I don't need to mention all the superlatives for one Kyrie Irving.  I do understand the question marks around Andrew Bynum's health because having missed an entire year one will be wise to not count on him until he actually takes the court.  Bynum in my mind is the key to the Cavs being a 7-8 seed or a 3-5 seed.  Once Bynum takes the court, works off the initial rust, he allows the Cavs to be able to matchup with anyone in the NBA including the likes of Miami, LAC, BKN and everyone else in the NBA.


GROWTH:  Yes the Cavs have a number of players that are still getting better at their respective positions.  It's safe to say that with improved play around him that Kyrie Irving is going to be that much more effective, I expect Dion Waiters to take a major step forward both on the offensive and defensive end(Kyrie on defense). It was apparent to me that Dion is much more confident in his jumper today as opposed to last year.  Tristan Thompson seems to be getting better and better each and every time he plays.  I would be stunned to not see him average a double double each and every night.


Let's not forget the rookies who will grow and get better as the season progresses in Bennett, Karasev and Felix.  Bennett showed flashes in the preseason in that he is going to be a very good player once he gets into shape, mixes up his game a bit better and has more confidence in imposing his talents on others.  Karasev on the other hand has shown he can shoot from outside and is a wonderful passer.  Karasev does need to get stronger but that will come in time.  Felix will be used primarily on defense which he is very good at.


DEPTH:  When everyone is healthy you have to admit that the Cavs have one of the better benches in the NBA.  No matter who you start at the #3 you have depth and versatility throughout.  Let's take a look at it.

Assuming the starting five of

Bynum

Thompson

Gee

Waiters

Kyrie

which when healthy is a damn good starting five

Bench:

Verajao

Zeller- who unfortunately we didn't get to see in the preseason because of injury and surgery.  I heard that he had looked as though he had vastly improved his game too

Bennett

Clark

Miles

Karasev

Jack- who if not mistaken came in 2nd in 6th man of the year award. 


Off the top of my head it's only two benches I would rather have in the NBA more than the Cavs' bench and that's Denver Nuggets and the Brooklyn Nets other than that the Cavs are as good if not better than any bench in the NBA. 

On aside, I think alot of ppl underestimate the importance of production off the bench is and IMO, this is why I'm not as high on some teams like Warriors, Thunder, Bulls and others.  By the time the last part of the year roles around you can usually tell the teams that have good benches because the teams that don't are inconsistent and injured because they logged far too many minutes.


All in all the Cavs will wear teams down during the course of the game and year with the ability to adjust and play multiple guys.



DEFENSE:  Damn, it's so good to have Mike Brown back.  I say this because no longer do we have to wonder if we will win once we get a 27-30 point lead, no longer will we see the same mistakes over and over again with guys not knowing who guard in the last seconds of games.  Yes I still remember in games last year where Austin Carr would ask "why are we switching?" while in pick and roll defense.   Brown is going to demand excellence on defense and from the very first game of the regular season you could see that the defense is so much better.

We saw better pick and roll defense, we saw a rotating defense that had purpose and dictated to the offense what it could and could not do, etc.  In the Case of Dion and Kyrie buying into the defense it's going to lead to them being more successful because they will get steals and easy baskets because of it.  In order to beat some of the better teams it will be this that will keep them in the games when their shots aren't falling. With the added depth the Cavs can be relentless for all 48 minutes because they don't have to worry about guys getting tired or guys playing way too many minutes.


  Please give feedback on my analysis:


BTW, I do acknowledge that the East has gotten much better but the Cavs should be able to hold it's own against anyone.






Monday, October 14, 2013

Lions vs Browns

You talk about a tale of two halves:  This game was one of those and I will illustrate some of the points I saw in where the Browns lost this game.  After watching the game over it became apparent what the BIGGEST point of failure was even though multiple things went wrong on both offense and defense.


1st half offense:

Absolutely no problems with the play calling whatsoever.    Saw a nice combo of run and pass and it was working very effectively.  Also, it was a combo of short and long passes.  It's maddening the number of long plays this team misses because of dropped passes.  The first throw to Gordon over the middle in which he would've had a big gainer and the pass before halftime in which it went off his finger tips.  You have to make those plays.  My biggest issue in the 1st half offensively was the poor decision by Weeden on that INT.  I understand he was trying to make a play but, he killed a promising drive.  If he's going to throw that pass make sure his man is the only one that can catch it.  Not happy with that throw one bit.


1st half defense:

In watching the game there were signs that we would see what we saw in the 2nd half.  The run defense in the 1st half was very stout.  TJ Ward made alot of plays close to the line of scrimmage(he also missed some tackles).  The pass rush throughout the entire game was none existent.  Mingo is seeing that his 1.5 moves isn't nearly good enough an Paul Kruger is who I thought he was.  Please, don't get me wrong I still like Mingo and think he's going to be a good player but it's going to take time and you won't see him blossom this year. 

The lack of pass rush was particularly a problem because it exposed the real weaknesses in coverage in Jackson and for this game Robertson.  Robertson had by far his worst game as a pro and in the 2nd half needed to be benched.  His play was TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.  On the back end of the defense they are really blossoming.  Skrine is not only becoming a good player but someone who can be relied upon to make consistent plays.  Gipson is the same way.  Remember when everyone wanted to go out and sign all these vet players??



2nd half offense:

This is where the game was lost, IMO:  Instead of continuing to do what they did in the first half the offensive game plan got greedy and impatient.  We've seen this story before.  The penalties didn't help though, especially the first drive in the 2nd half.  In the 2nd half the offense was screaming for a slant pass that would get them a 1st down so they could keep the drive going.  Plus the offense abandoned the run far to easily.  Weeden got kinda hot in the 2nd half so they thought they were going to continue to build off that but the deep passes they were trying to execute weren't there.  All in all, the ineptitude of the offense was the biggest reason why with big aid from poor Coaching.


The INEXCUSABLE play by Weeden cannot be tolerated and he knows this:  He has to eat that ball.  I do understand that he didn't want to take a sack but it's better to take the sack and live another day.  The sad part about that the play was that Weeden did a beautiful of not forcing the ball into his primary WR on that play but did a poor job of throwing the ball Obognnaya when that play wasn't there.   Also, it took away from an impressive drive he was having moving the team.  All in all, no issues with his overall play but those mistakes have to be avoided because it not only exposes the defense but it kills momentum. 


2nd half defense:


The lack of pass rush continued and DQ and Robertson continued to be exposed.  The only difference in the defense was that the tackling was becoming an issue because they were out there for so long.  It also needs to be noted that the defense allowed the Lions to get the ball and march right down for a TD in the 2nd half.  Also, 3rd downs continue to be a problem for this defense.



Observations:


Supposedly, Norv is the one calling the plays but make no mistake this isn't Norv's offense:  I've followed Norv's offense everywhere he's been and Norv is a grind it out type of OC, running the ball three times in the 2nd half isn't grinding it out.  Conversely, this offense has Chud written all over it. We've seen this before this year with the lack of running the ball and it goes back to what he did at CAR too.  When he was here, Romeo insisted on him being much more balanced .


Guys catch the damn ball:  Missing on far too many plays when the balls are perfectly thrown and the drops happen.  The two big plays to Gordon stands out.  Not saying guys have to be perfect but drops like that hurt because they assuredly would've lead to major points being scored.


Brandon Weeden:  I thought he was EXCELLENT  in the first half outside of that poor decision on INT.  The 2nd INT is totally inexcusable and unacceptable.   In the 2nd half not as efficient but did make some very, very good throws.  The Pass to Little that was ruled incomplete was fantastic.  The slant throws he made all game long totally dis spells the talk he has no touch.  Often threw the balls into tight Windows. Other things that are noticeable is how he's moving his head to make other throws when primary WR's aren't open.  He's gotten considerable better at this since last year.  Another thing is that he hangs in the pocket alot better.  I noted this in the Miami game.  He threw a strike to Greg Little when he was interfered with with a man in his face.


Bottom line with Weeden:  Eliminate the bone headed plays and you will be a very good player for the next 5-7 yrs no matter where you are. 



Defensively:

Horton needed to replace Craig Robertson in the 2nd half after a nice warning about his first half play.  His play was totally unacceptable and looking at Robertson's body language in the game he knows he sucked in the game.  Also, my biggest fear on the defense finally was exposed.  DQ is a very big liability in pass coverage and has been for a long time.


Mingo is starting to be exposed as a pass rush threat.  It's like a guy you get in baseball who throws 100 mph but can't get anything else over the plate expect for an occasional curve ball.  Sooner rather than later the hitters will time you up. Same goes with Mingo.  His lack of pass  rush moves and having only that speed rush and occasional spin move isn't making him effective.  This team misses Sheard so much because of his knack of making plays in the run and passing game.  Quentin Groves should be getting more PT too(I'm scratching my head as to why we're not seeing him on pass rush alot more).  I'm growing tired of the Paul Kruger's version of the invisible man