In looking at Ubaldo and his free agency one has to wonder if the Indians are better off letting him walk or taking a tremendous chance in signing and hoping that he continues down the path he had in the 2nd half of the 2013 season. Even those that want to sign him to a long term deal acknowledge that it will be a big risk considering what the ups and mostly downs Ubaldo has provided since being traded to the Indians.
Let's remember that the Indians got Ubaldo in 2011 for Joe Gardner, Matt McBride, Drew Pomeranz and Alex. The jaded long time Indians fans would swear to you that the Indians had just traded Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale in Pomeranz and White respectively the Indians felt they were acquiring an ace that possibly needed a change of scenery and mechanics to be readjusted. Ubaldo had definitely been an ACE in Colorado including seasons of 15-12, 3.47 ERA and 218 innings and a season of 19-8, 2.88 ERA with 221.2 innings. After the Trade to say the Ubaldo was disappointing was an understatement because he promptly went on to post a 4-4 record, 5.10 ERA in 65.1 innings. Not exactly what the Indians had in mind when they acquired him
Fast forward to the 2012 season where Ubaldo was going to bounce back and anchor the rotation along with Justin Masterson to help the Indians become a good team. Again, it didn't happen. Ubaldo went on to post a 9-17, 5.10 ERA in 176.2 innings. At this stage of the game it was hard to argue the fact that the Indians and Rockies made a bad trade from both sides because the two headliners from the Rockies side did nothing as well.
Once again we fast forward to the 2013 season with a new Manager in Tito Francona and new Pitching Coach in Mickey Callaway. Callaway, would fly to the Dominican to work with Ubaldo with his mechanics throughout the winter because it was over the span that they were all over the place. Throughout Spring Training and the first half of the year Ubaldo were a mixed bag because he posted a 7-4 record, 4.56 ERA and pitched at that point. Up at this point the Indians weren't very confident in Ubaldo at this point because on several occasions at least twice vs the Tigers the Indians skipped his start because they felt he would creamed by them and they disguised it as he just needed more time to work with Callaway.
On a personal note my breaking point with Ubaldo was when he was given a 5-0 lead going into the sixth inning and promptly walked the first two batters, committed an error and then gave up a grand slam to Lorenzo Cain to get the Royals right back into the game. The Indians would go on to lose the game by a score of 10-7 and I had enough of Ubaldo and his inconsistency not only during this game but with his entire tenure with the Tribe. I wanted him gone immediately. Little did I know that what was in store for not only myself but the Indians as a whole.
From the point forward in July Ubaldo would be flat out dominant he would routinely get the Indians into the 7th and 8th innings and had become a stalwart in the Indians' march toward the playoffs. The month of July would end up 2-1 and 2.83 ERA, August 1-4, 3.10 EA and of course the month of September where Ubaldo would go on to be 4-0, 1.09 ERA.... HELLO!!! This not only put the Indians in the playoffs but some recognized the Indians as a dangerous team in the playoffs because of how hot Ubaldo was and Masterson coming back from injury(I still contend that if Masterson weren't injured the Indians would've won the Wildcard game and had a punchers chance vs the Red Sox).
We fast forward to free agency and admittedly I was in the crowd that said the Indians should do whatever it takes to resign Ubaldo to help Masterson anchor this rotation. For the vast majority of the off season I held this belief until just recently where I figured that resigning Ubaldo would hurt the Indians going forward for number of reasons.
Assuming that Ubaldo wouldn't be interested in just a one year deal the resigning of him would almost mean the loss of one Justin Masterson. Masterson has become a stalwart in this rotation with his consistency(outside of '12 when he was injured) and simply has been more reliable than one Ubaldo Jimenez. Yes, it came down to the consistency of Justin Masterson and the flat out inconsistency of Ubaldo Jimenez , it shouldn't be a hard decision despite Ubaldo's dominance with the Tribe down the stretch and brilliance before joining the Tribe with the Rockies. Even if you don't resign Masterson the Tribe maintains financial flexibility so they can get someone else in to fill the holes instead of having the albatross of having Ubaldo's contract and money strangling them in which he may or may not perform up to.
I also believe the resigning Ubaldo would retard the growth of some of the Indians' starters who need to be given a consistent rotation spot to realize their awesome potential. Yes, I am speaking of starters such as Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and the forgotten one himself Josh Tomlin. I think some forget that Carrasco was before he was injured. Yes, I admit that he has been very inconsistent going forward as a starter but the Tribe seems hell bent on giving him consistent starts going forward. Trevor Bauer is another talented young Starter for the Tribe that could bust out in '14. He had control issues along with being uncomfortable with his delivery. After working with Callaway over the winter it appears that all of this has been ironed out going forward. Josh Tomlin is another pitcher that is often forgotten who before being shut down in '12 after rocky year and missing almost all of '13 season is back. Once again people forget that Tomlin was 12-5, 4.25 ERA in his first full year with the Tribe. Also, in 30 innings in '13 didn't walk one batter so command is back.
The addition of a #1 pick. One of the unspoken things about the Indians is that they are emphasizing drafting, developing their own players in their system. With losing Ubaldo the Indians would get another #1 pick along with the other two that they have to stock the farm system even more. This is a pitching rich draft and the Tribe figures to have draft plenty of young starting pitching early and often. Keep in mind this is a farm system that is on the rise and a influx of young talented starting pitching is desperately needed in the system. That Ubaldo pick would really look good.
Other things to consider is that Ubaldo flourished under the direction of one Mickey Callaway and teams looking at him must take that into account considering the fact that other pitching coaches that Ubaldo has had in the past both with the Rockies and Indians have failed to reach him Ubaldo has spoken as Callaway is the best pitching coach he's ever had. Once again this should be a red flag to other teams that are interested in the services of Ubaldo
Be prepared with the National Media saying the Indians needed to sign either Ubaldo or Scott Kazmir who signed with Oakland A's. What the National Media doesn't seem to understand is the fact that the Indians operated with six quality starters in the 2nd half of last year when everyone was healthy. Looking at the Indians rotation in '13 it included the steady Masterson, Ubaldo, Corey Kluber who became an unsong hero before the injury, the impressive Danny Salazar, Scott Kazmir who the Indians resurrected and the steady Zach McAllister. I mention this to say even with the loss of both Ubaldo and Kazmir the Indians should still have a formidable rotation with Masterson, Kluber(who looks to be a very steady #2, IMO), Salazar who at some point could be a star and the solid Zach McAllister. Added in the talented pitchers like Carrasco, Bauer along with Tomlin. To add depth the Indians added Shawn Marcum who when healthy is a legit starter.
In looking at the pros and cons of signing Ubaldo are you going to be the Hiram that began the offseason or the Hiram towards the end of the offseason in regards to signing Ubaldo???
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